What is the statistical likelihood of capsular contracture reoccurring after a capsulectomy and implant replacement?

The published risk of capsular contracture is approximately 9–11%, in my practice it is significantly lower after the primary implant placement. Once capsular contracture occurs, the risk of problems with secondary surgery rises to between 25% and 40%. Capsular contractures are lower with non-smokers, and with use of textured silicone implants placed below the muscle. The location of the incision also plays a role. Inframammary incision also has the lowest and periareolar and axillary (arm pit) incisions have the highest capsular contracture rate. Smoking/nicotine use greatly increases your risk for capsular contracture greater than 10 times the incidence of a non nicotine user.

While it is true that capsular contracture is more likely to happen after it has happened once, there are several things that affect the odds of this. For one, the 15% number is probably high although it is based on the clinical trials that were done for implant approval. We just published a series showing a less than 2% risk with use of the Keller funnel. Recurrence will be less likely if the implants are placed under the muscle. Replacing the implant is very important, and using a fold incision rather than periareolar or armpit is helpful. Finally, use of a acellular dermal matrix such as Strattice can reduce the chances considerably. 

There are a lot of factors that come into play with recurrent capsular contracture but an exact statistic amount in my practice is less then 10% (but couldn't tell you exact).  There are several factors though that I feel help prevent recurrent encapsulation.  Performing capsulectomy with drains plus replacing implants completely is my recommendation.  Also I prefer using an inframammary incision (breast fold) for these types of surgeries.  The rest is technique dependent.  Ultimately there are some people who just re encapsulate no matter what you try.  Make sure you seek consultation with Board Certified Plastic Surgeons who perform a lot of revision breast surgery.  Best of luck to you

are greater when you already developed one BUT if a complete capsulectomy is done along with new implants and the most meticulous of techniques, I would think your risks do return to what it was when you first had your procedure.  But rates vary by surgeons and their techniques so make sure your surgeon is doing everything possible to help prevent another one if you have another procedure.

No one is going to be able to give you an EXACT number. As you know, there are many factors that can contribute to the recurrence rate of capsular contracture. I'm sure in your case, you are not sure what lead to your contracture the first time. The best thing to do is try not to worry about it, stay healthy an keep in close contact with your plastic surgeon if anything seems like it's not quite right.