Swollen tip after rhinoplasty. How drastically will my nose change after the swelling?

Although everyone heals at a different rate, tip swelling is the last area of the nose to subside after rhinoplasty.  It may be several months before you begin to notice the swelling starting to subside in the tip area.  At this point, regular follow up visits with your surgeon is important.

Generally speaking, it can take 6 to 12 months to completely heal after surgery. Please keep in touch with your surgeon or his/her clinical team to discuss your ongoing concerns.

The nose is usually maximally swollen at ten days after surgery. Give it 6-12 months to see the final result. Best of luck.

You are correct in that you're very early in the healing phase from a rhinoplasty. The entire nose is likely still somewhat swollen. The nasal tip is known to have persistent swelling after rhinoplasty for weeks to months in comparison to other regions. Without seeing photos it is difficult to comment on the swelling, however, it will likely decrease with time. It is imperative that you followup with your rhinoplasty surgeon throughout this process because they may be able to manage some of the swelling in the office with steroid injections and/or nasal taping maneuvers. 

While a lot of swelling will go down in the first 3 weeks or so, it will take 3-6 months for all of the swelling to go away, followed by contraction of the skin for another year or longer.  So don't worry too much now as things will likely improve a lot.