Does no "dread shed" with Minoxidil mean not working?

Not necessarily, but keep in mind it will take up to 6 months to see results with minoxidil. I suggest seeing a hair loss expert now to evaluate and go over your condition and provide you information about your best treatment options. There are great non-invasive options like prp/progesterone that work well with minoxidil. See an expert. Best, Dr. Emer

I believe that shedding is a sign that Minoxidil is working.  A lack of shedding, does not mean that the product is not working.  However, many women may not respond well to topical minoxidil.  The foam is often reserved for men, but women can try it.  If this does not work well for you, consider seeing a physician to place you on oral minoxidil and take 1/2 of a 2.5 mg pill daily.  You can later add spironolactone if you need to.  The PRP can help.  I don't know of any data to support injections of progesterone. Topical progesterone does not work well.  

Great question! The short answer is "no" but here is the longer answer. Minoxidil causes immediate release of telogen hairs. In early AGA there are tons of telogen hairs and chances of shedding are pretty high. As AGA progreses, individuals often experience less shedding in general - and less shedding with minoxidil. Also individuals who shampoo daily often notice less overall shedding. So in summary, the lack of a dread shed does not mean minoxidil won't work - but places your overall odds a bit lower if you are an infrequent shampooer and if you have early AGA. If you shampoo daily and have moderate AGA, the significance of your observation is minimal. It takes 6-9 months to really know if you are responding to minoxidil.

You have had no shedding from minoxidil and that is good. Not everyone sheds after starting minoxidil so I suspect now you just have to wait it out about another 9 months to see results, if you are going to get them