Is there any research or stats on the likelihood of oil cysts and when they tend to occur after breast fat transfers?

I do not believe an article has been written analyzing palpable nodules due to fat necrosis after fat transfer, so your question doesn't have an answer (yet). I can tell you that in the general population of surgeons, all complications tend to be higher than in surgeons that have more experience, and that those surgeons who do not mechanically expand the tissue simultaneous to fat injection using specialized canula ('Expansion Vibration Lipofilling' as conceived by Dan Del Vecchio, M.D.), probably experience more nodules and fat necrosis.

Fat necrosis is more common in women with very large breasts. I am not sure that the data has been collected on rate of calcification, and then the issue becomes whether that is clinically significant. The calcification lumps are usually not an issue. It is reasonable to expect lumps to improve or soften with time. This process may take several months. Fat necrosis and oil cysts usually don’t need to be treated. Sometimes fat necrosis goes away on its own. If a needle aspiration is done to remove the fluid in an oil cyst, it can also serve as treatment.

Dear emc1183,
Fat viability depends a lot of surgeon technique. The fat has to be placed back into the buttocks as soon as possible so that it has a greater chance of survival. It has to be placed carefully so that not too much fat is placed in only one area.If you are considering a surgery, I would suggest you to consult a board-certified plastic surgeon. Only after a thorough examination you will get more information and recommendations.
Daniel Barrett, MD
Certified, American Board of Plastic Surgery
Member, American Society of Plastic Surgery
Member, American Society of Aesthetic Plastic Surgery

The chance of developing labs or oil cysts is dependent on the technique used during fat transferred

If that is diffusely grafted through the breast tissue no single particle or collection of grafted fat will be sufficient to make a clinical oil cyst or palpable mass. If however someone puts too much fat in a single place without diffusely spreading out the grafted fat fat necrosis will occur with a collection of fat that will liquefy and not be absorbed.

It’s not so much a random chance with a statistic as it is directly related to the technique used by the surgeon.

That needs to be grafted meticulously in discrete lines through discrete layers that are predicted and planned in a meticulous manner not just randomly injected.

When done correctly it’s a non-issue.

Regardless there can be mammogram changes even with the best technique.

My practice has been devoted exclusively to Liposuction and fat transfer for over a decade. I’ve had many years to figure out what works and what doesn’t.

Fat transfer is a reasonably good at giving overall volume improvements but is not particularly good at changing the shape of the breast.

Best,

Mats Hagstrom MD