Chances of Encapsulating After Second Breast Augmentation?

I would recommend textured silicone gel implants in combination with your breast lift.

Many surgeons feel that the risk of encapsulation is lower when these implants are used.

I have placed many hundreds of textured implants over the years and have found capsular contracture to be very infrequent.

Going under the muscle has been reported to be associated with a lower rate of capsular contracture. I would try implants. If not, you could consider breast augmentation with your own fat if considering only a modest size increase and have sufficient fat elsewhere.

First, it is very unusual for capsular contracture to cause pain. In my practice, it is an aesthetic problem, not a health issue.
There is no significant difference in capsular contracture with implants above or below the muscle. However, in my patients who have surgery for contracture, often times we will move the implant to a different location (above or below) just to change the biologic variables hoping to decrease the incidence of contracture.
Having previous contracture probably increases your risk relative to the general population for another but I do not know exact percentages.