How likely is scarring if you pick your scabs after fractional laser treatment?

This is difficult to answer with any precision because the likelihood of scarring correlates directly with the aggressiveness of your picking!  The deeper the injury you caused to your skin, the more likely you are to have created scar tissue to repair it.   If you only had some very superficial scabs that flaked off easily, you are less likely to scar.  For my fractional treatments I advise patients to continue to wear the ointment (that they are sent out with,) for 3-4 days or until most of the scaling is gone.  Keeping treatment sites moist with ointment and cleansing skin with a gentle cleanser more frequently helps to diminish the scaling/peeling a bit faster.  

Chances of scarring from picking off resurfacing scabs :      high.If the areas you picked were small and limited, you might get by. There's a reasons your mother told you not to pick!

Accidental scratching and picking post laser is very common. This occurs subconscious in your sleep, or by accident. Habitual picking is another matter. In your case because the skin is PINK and there are no areas of pin point bleeding, healing should be uneventful. I would not worry, keep up with your post op regime, and trim your nails (my standard post op care). Wish you well. Dr Davin S. Lim. Brisbane. Australia.