Risk of Hypertrophic Scars from Earlobe Surgery?

Hypertrophic scarring (thick wide scar) is different from keloids (scar mass that keeps growing well outside the boundaries of the scar).  If you have not had keloids develop in the ear area before from previous piercings, then it is unlikely that you would develop keloid in your ear now.

Earlobe surgery is performed under sterile conditions with minimal tension applied to the repair.  Although a hypertrophic scar is possible, it is not common.  Thick scars associated with the earlobes should be managed early and aggressively.  If you are worried about the possibility of hypertrophic or keloid scarring, seek a surgeon who is familiar with earlobe repair and scar revision. 

It is possible to develop keloid on your earlobes after reduction or repair; however it is not inevitable. Should you start seeing keloids develop, the key is to start treatment early. Steroid injections, pressure therapy and even radiation therapy can all be effective.

I have repaired hundreds of torn earlobes and have yet to see a keloid or hypertropic scar.  I'm not certain why this is because I have seen many keloids (almost always in black patients) as a result of ear piercing.  In correcting those problems, occasional recurrences are observed. 

Torn earlobes are quite common in longstanding piercings, especially in patients who prefer long/ heavy earrings. In my practice, I see this problem quite commonly and have yet to see a keloid form after repair. However, avoiding the problem is largely related to patient selection. The three most common sites for keloid formation are the sternum (chest), deltoid, and earlobe. Keloid formation has a genetic predisposition, generally occurring in darker skinned patients. The one factor that goes against keloid formation in your circumstance is a prior piercing with no history of keloid in that ear.